Re: poly: longevity

Rich Schroeppel writes:
>> I don't think he saying to to try to improve longevity. He's saying
> keep on trying, but don't expect to do too much better than past
> efforts have achieved.
>I object. We must choose among available actions, and underestimating the
>benefits of an aggressive medical research policy encourages homocide by
>neglect. To correctly size the research budget, we need accurate
>projections. Saying "the future will probably be like the past" is wrong
>when the world really is changing.

I recall posting an annoucement of a paper which looked at the future
longevity expectations implicit in certain financial security prices, such
as insurance and pensions. They were pretty much business as usual
predictions. Optimists like you should see this as a profit opportunity.

Robin Hanson
hanson@econ.berkeley.edu http://hanson.berkeley.edu/
RWJF Health Policy Scholar, Sch. of Public Health 510-643-1884
140 Warren Hall, UC Berkeley, CA 94720-7360 FAX: 510-643-8614
Received on Mon May 11 19:50:18 1998