Re: poly: Modeling Economic Singularities

Peter M. writes:
> Let T1 be the time when sales or commercial use of a nanotech product first
>reach 1 million objects at least 1 cm in diameter.
>Let T2 be the time when the total value of physical goods (measured using
>prices that prevailed at time T1) produced in the wealthiest countries is
>100 times what it was at T2.
> I estimate the probability that T2 - T1 will be less than 1 year at 5%,
>and the probability that it will be less than 10 years at 50%.
> I get the impression that you think they are at least an order of magnitude
>less probable, and given that apparently intelligent people such as Drexler
>seem to think they are more probable than I do, I find your confidence in
>your beliefs a bit odd.

World per capita wealth was roughly constant in history till about 1700, and
since then it has risen by roughly a factor of 30. (Population increased
by roughly a factor of 8.) You're talking a 50% chance of an even larger
jump in 10 years. Since there are other intelligent people who also find
this claim incredible, I want to seem some careful analysis in support
of this view. That fact that I haven't heard of any such analysis, even
though there's been a ton of other sorts of nanotech analyses, suggests to
me that it's mostly wishful thinking. But I'd love to be shown otherwise.
 

Robin Hanson
hanson@econ.berkeley.edu http://hanson.berkeley.edu/
RWJF Health Policy Scholar, Sch. of Public Health 510-643-1884
140 Warren Hall, UC Berkeley, CA 94720-7360 FAX: 510-643-8614
Received on Thu Apr 30 19:06:17 1998