Re: poly: Re: Why interest rates may stay low

On Mar 23, 10:58am, Robin Hanson wrote:

>We seem to be confusing each other. It seems we both agree that a large number
>of projects with huge returns later should induce huge investment now in rights
>need for those later returns (like near-solar mass). So the lack of much
>investment in this now (far below anything that would "test this upper limit
>of investment supply") suggests investors don't anticipate such huge future
>returns. From which I conclude that such huge future returns are unlikley.
>What do you conclude?

That investors expect to be dead before such returns materialize? (And
corporations don't get around this because they have to return value to their
shareholders.)

That the uncertainties associated with environmental problems, brittleness of
civilization, or possible government interference in 'greedy' space investment
at the moment discount really long term and huge projects?

That there aren't any direct channels for investing in the colonization of
Alpha Centauri at the moment, while investment is happening in short term
projects such as Iridium and Teledesic which have direct payoff while possibly
having spinoff benefits?

That investors don't think it's possible to economically do much in space
without nuclear engines for liftoff, which aren't politically feasible?

-xx- GCU Mangyn of Chaos X-)

Mr. Knightley seemed to be trying not to smile; and succeeded without
difficulty, upon Mrs. Elton beginning to talk to him.
  -- Jane Austen, _Emma_
Received on Tue Mar 24 01:24:30 1998