Re: poly: Re: Why interest rates may stay low

But seriously, folks...

Robin writes:
> We seem to be confusing each other. It seems we both agree that a large
> number of projects with huge returns later should induce huge investment
> now in rights need for those later returns (like near-solar mass).
> So the lack of much investment in this now (far below anything that would
> "test this upper limit of investment supply") suggests investors don't
> anticipate such huge future returns. From which I conclude that such
> huge future returns are unlikley. What do you conclude?

Suppose the reason we don't see people investing in these projects is
because people think that their success is unlikely. A lot can go wrong
before we get around to taking over the universe. There could be war,
economic collapse, or the technology could have some subtle flaws which
we are overlooking.

But suppose that, as time goes on, the odds improve. New information
becomes available which makes the problems look more manageable and the
chances of success look better. As this happens, investment will begin to
move into these projects.

If we assume that the projects do in fact produce enormous returns
in the long run, then during this period of transition, what would we
expect to see?

Would we see large growth rates (or at least price increases) as we
transition from a state where the chances of seeing enormously productive
investments look low to where they look high?

Hal
Received on Tue Mar 24 00:17:09 1998