Re: poly: Why interest rates may stay low

In a message dated 2/27/98 4:44:14 PM, perry@piermont.com wrote:
>Robin Hanson writes:

>> A single example of a company making a giant ROE does not even weakly
>> discredit claims about the expected ex-ante ROE.
>
>You forget that this isn't some random company. Cisco Systems is one
>of the largest companies in the world, with a market cap in the
>stratosphere. (It is largely invisible because it doesn't make
>consumer products.)

Robin is, no doubt, fully aware of that. The point is that for every
Cisco there's hundreds of componies that have lost money. Some
economist (I wish I could remember who!) calculated that if you sum
up every computer company that's ever existed, the industry as a
whole has *lost* money. So unless you're a precognitive who can
pick the winners, it's a bum deal.
Received on Sat Feb 28 00:51:34 1998