Re: poly: Fermi paradox and Percolation theory

From: Hal Finney <>
Date: Sat Dec 26 1998 - 11:33:21 PST

Damien R. Sullivan,, writes:
> Abstract
> Any given colony will have a probability P of developing a colonizing
> civilization, and a probability (1-P) that it will develop a
> non-colonizing civilization.

In our earlier discussions we assumed a correlation between the probablity
of a colony's daughters colonizing and its parents. This led to an
evolution-like model where there was selection for colonizing tendencies.

Robin developed a complex model, which included several failure modes
for attempted creation of daughters, but I don't think it included
"lack of interest".

It might be interesting to explore various levels of correlation
coefficient, between the 0 apparently assumed here and the 1 we assumed
(as I understood the discussion).

Received on Sat Dec 26 10:39:04 1998

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