poly: Economic Growth Assuming Machine Intelligence

From: Robin Hanson <hanson@econ.berkeley.edu>
Date: Wed Sep 30 1998 - 15:22:32 PDT

I've finally did some formal economic analysis of the
implications of machine intelligence (uploads or AIs) for
economic growth, wages, and population. The analysis
confirms and illuminates simple intuitions.

      Economic Growth Assuming Machine Intelligence
       http://hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf , .ps
                 by Robin Hanson

A simple neo-classical growth model examines the implications
of machine intelligence, machines which could substitute for,
rather than complement, human labor. Steady state growth rates
could easily rise by an order of magnitude or more. But with
steady growth, wages and per-intelligence consumption could fall
as fast as computer prices do.

Robin Hanson
hanson@econ.berkeley.edu http://hanson.berkeley.edu/
RWJF Health Policy Scholar, Sch. of Public Health 510-643-1884
140 Warren Hall, UC Berkeley, CA 94720-7360 FAX: 510-643-8614
Received on Wed Sep 30 22:11:16 1998

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