Re: poly: Y2K crisis?

ubject:
           Re: poly: Y2K crisis?
      Date:
           Fri, 11 Sep 1998 01:34:13 -0700
      From:
           Forrest Bishop <forrestb@ix.netcom.com>
        To:
           polymath@cco.caltech.edu
References:
           1

Hal Finney wrote:
>
> I'm curious to know whether there is any consensus among list members
> about the likely severity of the Y2K problem.

> I read many of the Internet resources about this topic regularly.
> The more active participants in discussion forums tend to be on
> the pessimistic side, seeing a range from a 1930-style depression to
> complete apocalypse. At the same time there is a minority who see less
> severe consequences, although many of them still expect serious economic
> disruptions at some level.

It may become a self-fulfilling prophecy, regardless of how many
computers actually crash (most of them won't). Some people (based on
personal observation only) are and will continue to pull their money out
of electronic storage. Christian numerologists will wack off again, as they
did in 1000 CE. The Asian, Slavic, Latin, etc. economic problems will still
be around. The Eurodollar will be introduced to an uncertain reception. An
avalanch effect may well ensue, perhaps well before Y2K.

> complexity and multiple manifestations of the problems. Here I think
> the pessimists are underestimating the collective ability of people
> to solve large problems by having each person work on his own portion,
> or to work around flaws in creative ways.

I agree, with reservation.

> In my opinion, the potential consequences of a major Y2K catastrophe
> are such that everyone should give the issue serious consideration.

It seems wise to me to make some preparations, just as we carry
insurance policies. 'Hope for the best, prepare for the worst'.

Forrest

-- 
Forrest Bishop
Manager,
Interworld Productions, LLC
Chairman,
Institute of Atomic-Scale Engineering
http://www.speakeasy.org/~forrestb