From: Hal Finney <hal@rain.org>

Date: Wed Jun 10 1998 - 09:59:47 PDT

Date: Wed Jun 10 1998 - 09:59:47 PDT

Carl's posting is fascinating as usual, but it raises a question. GDP is

basically productivity times population. It would be interesting to know

how much of the historical growth is due to each of these two factors.

As Carl mentions, getting access to the Americas allows population to

increase considerably, independent of any productivity growth.

When Robin first posted about growth rates, he referred to a set of

papers which fit an asymptotic curve to (recent) population levels

(infinite population around 2030 or so). For that to work, rate of

growth needs to be proportional to population squared. In traditional

biological growth, growth rate is proportional to population. So we

need an additional multiplicative factor proportional to population.

Could this be productivity? If growth rate is proportional to population

times productivity, and productivity is proportional to population,

then we get the asymptotic curve.

All we have to do is get data on historical population levels and divide

into Robin's GDP data to get historical productivity. Then we can look

and see if it grows roughly in step with population.

Hal

Received on Wed Jun 10 17:18:10 1998

*
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.8
: Tue Mar 07 2006 - 14:45:30 PST
*