Re: poly: The singleton hypothesis

From: Robin Hanson <>
Date: Fri Jun 05 1998 - 14:17:06 PDT

Nick B. writes:
>Methodological remark: I wonder if that is the reason why people
>fail to realize certain consequences in this domain -- they keep
>thinking in terms of historical examples. I instead tend to think in
>terms of what will be technologically possible, and what a
>cost-benefit analysis implies that rational agents would do in these
>completely novel situations.

I think these situations are less novel than you realize, and so
history is more relevant than you realize.

>-- I have begun writing a paper where I will try to put my ideas
>on this topic together. The discussions on this list have been --and
>are-- very helpful indeed.

I think this is the right step for you now. A paper will force you
to be clear about what exactly your assumptions are. I have lost track

Robin Hanson
RWJF Health Policy Scholar, Sch. of Public Health 510-643-1884
140 Warren Hall, UC Berkeley, CA 94720-7360 FAX: 510-643-2627
Received on Fri Jun 5 21:22:52 1998

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