Re: poly: Idea Futures, some questions

From: Robin Hanson <>
Date: Wed Jun 03 1998 - 16:14:07 PDT

At 12:12 AM 5/26/98 -0400, Shasha wrote:
>I wonder if anybody thought of IF derivatives.
>Suppose I want to buy options for various claims, for various points in time.
>Or would like to bet that in 2 years total value of claims A and B will be
>between values of claims C and D. Or that the derivatives market
>will outpace single claims market.
>Would the conventional market math work here? Futures? Indexes?

Conventional analysis of derivative pricing does indeed works for
such derivatives.

>Arbitrage? Will discovery of new facts and publication of new ideas
>have effects similar to those the discoveries of new resources and
>technologies have on the existing "price claims" market?

The discovery of new facts has the same general effects on both kinds
of markets.

Robin Hanson
RWJF Health Policy Scholar, Sch. of Public Health 510-643-1884
140 Warren Hall, UC Berkeley, CA 94720-7360 FAX: 510-643-2627
Received on Wed Jun 3 23:19:11 1998

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