From: Hal Finney <hal@rain.org>

Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 - 09:34:29 PDT

Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 - 09:34:29 PDT

Peter C. McCluskey, <pcm@rahul.net>, writes:

*> Here's a scenario which I would guess has a 0.1 to 10% chance of happening:
*

I wonder if you could describe your thinking in choosing to express this

as a range of probabilities. Is it, as Robin and Nick have suggested, that

you could theoretically pin it down more closely if you thought about it

longer? But based on how much time you have spent thinking about it, all

you can say now is that eventually you would have settled on a probability

in this range?

Can you express in probabilitistic terms how likely it is that the

probability is in the range from .1% to 10%? More, could you estimate

how likely it is that the probability is in the range from say 2% to 6%?

And even more generally, could you give the shape of your belief function

in terms of a probability distribution over the possible probabilities?

I am trying to get a better understanding of what people mean when they

use probability ranges. We are already dealing with an uncertain event.

But apparently for you simply to say that the probability was, say, 1%,

would have seemed too precise. Even though this estimate is consistent

with either of the two possible alternative outcomes, and indicates that

one is far more likely than the other, it does not express what is in

your mind. I am curious to know how you view the meaning of a probability

range like this one.

Thanks,

Hal

Received on Mon Apr 27 16:37:35 1998

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