Re: poly: What probabilities?

From: Peter C. McCluskey <>
Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 - 08:27:07 PDT ("Nick Bostrom") writes:
>Peter C. McCluskey wrote:
>> >"Here's a scenario which I would guess has a 0.1 to 10% chance of
>> > happening: 1) a self-replicating molecular assembler becomes able to
>> > manufacture...",
>> Can you produce 2 reasonable interpretations of my statement which
>> have nontrivially different implications?
>Interpretation 1: You say something about the objective probability
>of the scenario in question, i.e. that if we prepared a large number
>of systems in states indistinguishable from the present state of
>civilization here on earth (modulo our knowledge thereof) then the
>fraction of them which would develop in accordance with the scenario
>is between 0.1 and 10%.

 The hypothesis that I have information which would justify this
interpretation seems very far from reasonable.

Peter McCluskey          | Critmail ( | Accept nothing less to archive your mailing list
Received on Mon Apr 27 15:28:56 1998

This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.8 : Tue Mar 07 2006 - 14:45:30 PST