From: Peter C. McCluskey <pcm@rahul.net>

Date: Tue Apr 28 1998 - 14:08:25 PDT

Date: Tue Apr 28 1998 - 14:08:25 PDT

hal@rain.org (Hal Finney) writes:

*>Peter C. McCluskey, <pcm@rahul.net>, writes:
*

*>> Here's a scenario which I would guess has a 0.1 to 10% chance of happening:
*

*>
*

*>I wonder if you could describe your thinking in choosing to express this
*

*>as a range of probabilities. Is it, as Robin and Nick have suggested, that
*

*>you could theoretically pin it down more closely if you thought about it
*

*>longer? But based on how much time you have spent thinking about it, all
*

*>you can say now is that eventually you would have settled on a probability
*

*>in this range?
*

Approximately. I'm expressing a good deal of uncertainty about what the

correct number is, although it isn't obvious whether more thought would

improve on that, or whether more data is needed.

*>Can you express in probabilitistic terms how likely it is that the
*

*>probability is in the range from .1% to 10%? More, could you estimate
*

*>how likely it is that the probability is in the range from say 2% to 6%?
*

*>And even more generally, could you give the shape of your belief function
*

*>in terms of a probability distribution over the possible probabilities?
*

Yes, these are possible, but would take a fair amount of thought.

-- ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Peter McCluskey | Critmail (http://crit.org/critmail.html): http://www.rahul.net/pcm | Accept nothing less to archive your mailing listReceived on Tue Apr 28 21:10:51 1998

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